Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
