A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
